If it seems as though everyone you know added a family member with fur, feathers or fins during the pandemic, the data show that you’re right: There are currently five million more pets in the U.S. than there were in 2019, with about 4% more households now including pets, according to Morgan Stanley Research and findings by its proprietary survey and data arm AlphaWise. The third AlphaWise survey of pet owners in June, which included approximately 2,500 adults in the U.S., shows that “fur babies” have found a permanent place in the hearts, and spending habits, of consumers across the country and world.
That is good news for the pet industry, and there's more growth to come: Morgan Stanley predicts an 8% compound annual growth rate for the industry by 2030, which is one of the largest rates of return in any retail segment. That forecast is in line with estimates from spring 2021, based on the October 2020 survey, and we still expect pet services to lead that growth. However, analysts have lifted the longer-term estimates for pet products spending.
On the household level, Morgan Stanley predicts spending to increase to $1,320 per pet by 2025, while reaching $1,897 by 2030. That compares with the previous outlook for per-pet spending of $1,292 by 2025 and $1,909 by 2030.
“An outcome in line with this expectation would increase total spending in the industry by 134% over the next decade, from $118 billion in 2019 to $277 billion by 2030,” says Simeon Gutman, an equity analyst covering hardline, broadline and food retail at Morgan Stanley.
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